Workshop: Non - stationarity and flooding: from statistical models to flood risk management

A meeting to discuss the technical, practical, scientific and risk management implications of applying non-stationary statistical models to flood event data

Date: 19th September 2018, registration from 10am, kick-off at 10.40am, finish by 4.15pm.
Location: The Bond Co, Birmingham, B5 5SE
Organisers: Emma Eastoe (Lancaster University) and Rob Lamb (JBA Trust)

Many important decisions about planning for and mitigating the risk of flooding rely on statistical assessments of risk. These assessments usually involve looking at historical data sets. With increasing evidence of changes and variability in climate, and other drivers of flood risk, there is now a growing concern that “the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future”. Many types of change (or non-stationarity) can be included in statistical model, but these types of model have not been routinely applied in flood risk analysis.

This one-day workshop is intended to be an informal discussion forum to enable communication between academics and practitioners on the technical, practical, scientific and risk management implications of applying non-stationary statistical models to flood event data.

Workshop objectives

To hear about state-of-the-art methods in non-stationary statistical modelling
To exchange views about:

the applicability of statistical models, and their representation of the physical processes which can be fed-back into model development
how to make statistical models more accessible to hydrological/FRM professionals and researchers

To inform future studies on the presentation of risk in a non-stationary world.

Confirmed speakers

Prof Doug Wilson (Director of Research, Analysis and Evaluation, Environment Agency)
Dr Emma Eastoe and Prof Jon Tawn (Mathematics & Statistics, Lancaster University)
Dr Ilaria Prosdecimi (Statistics, Bath University)
Jamie Hannaford (Lead, Hydrological Reporting Group, CEH)
Dr Manuela Di Mauro (Water Lead, National Infrastructure Commission)
Duncan Faulkner (Head of Hydrology, JBA Consulting)
Prof Ivan Haigh (Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton)

Registration

To register, or for further information, please email flooding_workshop@lancaster.ac.uk by Friday 7th September 2018 at the latest. Please email any dietary or access requirements to the above address so that the venue/caterers can be informed.

Note that numbers are limited therefore please reply as soon as possible to guarantee a place.